Decision making.

Lessons from aviation.

Decision making is a continuous process for managers and leaders heading a company or a project. Routine decision making is easier as experience from the past and familiarity with the problem supports appropriate decision making. Unanticipated problems require application of cognitive intelligence, creativity, common sense and at times intuition. The outcome of a problem would also depend on personal choices, individual biases and its utility.

As per research, we humans make about 35000 decisions every day, consequential or inconsequential. Rational decision-making model expects us to be objective, unbiased, use facts and be restrained emotionally, to achieve a perfectly optimised decision. We rarely make decisions like that.

Bounded Rationality on the other hand, says, human beings seldom make purely rational decisions. We are influenced by our emotions, there are limits to our cognitive capabilities, quality of the information available in a particular situation and also the time and money available at our disposal to arrive at the optimal solution.

In aviation, a good decision would give us an outcome of a safe completion of flight. In business and life, the outcome might not be so clear. Identifying the GOAL, or the expected outcome of the decision-making process would make it more relevant. Decision making is a skill required of all pilots as a competency and becomes a large part of training, other than learning the skill of flying airplanes. Pilots are trained to make quick and optimal decisions in an environment which is dynamic, complex, time critical with at times with incomplete or fragmented information. Airlines across the world have worked on tools to helps pilots through these kinds of situations, Acronyms such as FORDEC, DODOR, DECIDE are used by airline pilots.

F-Facts

In general terms, identification of the problem. A complete clarity about the problem. Naming and labelling the problem. Incorrect labeling would affect every step of the decision-making process and also the outcome.

O-Options

Determine every course of action possible. List them out. Even if the alternative does not sound so good at first. Identify the stake holder who would be involved in each of the alternatives and their level of engagement.

R-Risk

The level of complexity attached with each of the alternatives. Run mental simulation of each of the alternatives taking them to their most probable conclusion. Pinpointing the advantages or disadvantages of their presumed outcome and rate them.

While considering the various alternatives it is also important to remember, some of these alternatives would have your personal preferences, biases or social context attached to them.

D-Decision

After analyzing all the alternatives, actual decision is made. Choose the most optimal one for the decided outcome, dispassionately without emotions attached with the expected outcome.

E-Execution

Once the decision is made, the relevant stake holders would have to be informed and their concurrence would be required, because the success of the decision would depend on their active participation and involvement.

C-Crosscheck

Follow through on the decision with constant updating of new information as the situation unfolds. Continuous monitoring of the original problem and the steps used will be required till the desired outcome is achieved.

The limitations of human capabilities along with the quality of information available, may make decision making look like an exercise in crystal ball gazing. Decision made under constrained environment are then judged with the comfortable knowledge of hindsight. Choices which look obviously wrong given the full range of information now available might not have been available to the decision maker. Tools like FORDEC is a useful ally to have in our bag of experience. And remember, hindsight is always 20/20 vision.

#Leadership #DecisionMaking #Aviation #BoundedRationality #FORDEC